Q3：Dr Yan: Regarding prediction of the end of epidemic: Recently all European countries are actively responding to the epidemic, and now they are also focusing on when the epidemic is ended. Most of the pessimistic predictions are made by experts who have western medicine background on media. Referring to experiences of previous outbreaks: SARS was ended at the end of May in 2003, whereas H1N1 was terminated at the beginning of August 2010. Even for MERS broken out in May 2015,actually there were no new cases in the early October of that year. Some expert groups mentioned before in some lectures that when the temperature rises, the first-line doctors found that infection rate has decreased by 80%. There were also two or three local Health Commissions sayings, when temperature is over 25 degrees, the activity of virus is lowered. It seems that there are some signs relationship of temperature and virus transmissions witnessed by us. According to Traditional Chinese Medicine theories, the occurrence of diseases may still follow change with solar terms changes throughout the year. Therefore what is your prediction on the trend of COVID-19?
——Yan Chunming,Association for Promotion of Culture and TCM
Prof. Wang: There is some understanding of the temperature of COVID-19, and according to some theories, the spread of the virus is related to the temperature, humidity and seasonal factors. Now, in some countries like Southeast Asia, the temperature is high, but it is still in the season of high incidence of disease. So, how do we look at this problem? Regarding the etiology of COVID-19, most of our scholars think that it is related to damp pathogen. If it is related to cold, it is cold-damp epidemic. If related to heat, it is damp-heat. If related to poison, it is damp-poison. The manifestation of this epidemics is related to damp-heat in tropical regions and cold-dampness in cold regions. We should comprehensively observe the changes in temperature and humidity. From the point of view of Yun qi theory, it is mentioned in Suwen about this year (2020): This year is the year of geng zi, dampness prevails, and there will be plague. This shows that this year is related to yun qi, temperature and other factors. From the theory of Five Yun and Six Qi, we have factors like zhu qi, ke qi, si tian and zai quan. We should analyze the trend of COVID-19 epidemic from three aspects: weather (heaven), etiology (disease) and constitutions(human). Therefore, we should combine the inference of epidemiologists and consider different environments and regions of the people, then we can make a good judgment.